XAU – Gold Remains Steady, Focus on Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Data

The World Gold Council reported that global investors began to flow back into gold ETFs in April, recording $6.6 billion in inflows, reversing the net outflows of March. All regions recorded net inflows in April, with European funds leading the gains. The World Gold Council indicated that as of the end of April, collective holdings in gold ETFs reached 4,137 tons, the third highest on record.

U.S. President Trump stated that the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran remains in effect, easing market concerns about a full-blown escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, market surveys indicate that the US is still awaiting a formal response from Iran regarding proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict. Previously, the U.S. military launched military strikes against the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and targets near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on US warships. US Central Command stated that Iran launched missile, drone, and speedboat attacks against US guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military subsequently responded in self-defense.

A temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East pressured the US dollar lower, but the overall decline remained limited as investors awaited the release of the U.S. April non-farm payrolls report tonight. The market expects approximately 60,000 new non-farm jobs in April, significantly lower than the 178,000 added in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3%. Stronger-than-expected employment data would indicate continued resilience in the U.S. labor market, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, which would support the dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could strengthen market expectations for future Fed rate cuts, further weakening the dollar.

Gold rose above $4760 on Thursday but subsequently fell back below $4700 before stabilizing in early trading on Friday. Given that gold prices had formed a bottom near the $4500 level earlier this week and have held this level for several days, coupled with support from the 9-month moving average, this area suggests some technical buying pressure. The chart also shows a golden cross, with the 4-day moving average crossing above the 9-day moving average, suggesting that gold prices are accumulating upward momentum. The downtrend line extending from early March currently provides resistance at $4645. More importantly, the key resistance level for this month is $4659. Therefore, if gold prices can continue to hold above this level, it will likely solidify its upward trend. Thursday's pullback should have allowed gold prices to hold this area for now. Further resistance can be seen at the 4-month moving average of $4822. Short-term resistance is estimated at $4728 and $4758, with stronger resistance at $4788 and $4824. Support levels are estimated at $4677 and $4647, followed by $4628 and $4588.

London Gold, May 8:
Forecasted Early Range: 4677 – 4728
Resistance: 4758 – 4788 – 4824
Support: 4647 – 4628 – 4588

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
April 27 – 1,044.34 tons
April 28 – 1,040.91 tons
April 29 – 1,039.20 tons
April 30 – 1,035.77 tons
May 1 – 1,035.77 tons
May 4 – 1,035.77 tons
May 5 – 1,034.05 tons
May 6 – 1,033.20 tons
May 7 – 1,033.48 tons

7/5 AM London Gold Fix: $4734.15 
7/5 PM London Gold Fix: $4743.35 

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