XAU–Gold Bottoming and Rebounding; Watch the 4407 Resistance Divide

The global market narrative is being driven by the Federal Reserve's restart of rate hikes, the US dollar reclaiming the 100 level, the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting, and a dense slate of macroeconomic data releases.

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that further tightening remains possible in the coming months. The decision was unanimous. Referencing the peak of the 2023 tightening cycle, this marks the first rate hike since that cycle ended. Officials cited persistently elevated inflation with upside risks, alongside resilient domestic demand, employment, and investment. Policymakers revised higher their 2026 GDP and inflation forecasts. The dot plot indicates one additional hike is possible before year-end. Although the 2027 median does not show further increases, eight members favor another hike next year and one sees the possibility of two, keeping markets leaning hawkish. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 57% probability of a hike at the next meeting.

On the geopolitical and calendar front, the key event this week is the Xi-Trump meeting. US President Trump is scheduled to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on Thursday; trade, tariffs, rare-earth exports, and AI are expected to feature prominently. Treasury Secretary Bessent will also meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the summit. Data releases include the US September PMI on Wednesday and August durable goods orders plus the University of Michigan September consumer sentiment index on Friday. The Swiss National Bank announces its rate decision on Thursday; given still-subdued price pressures, markets expect the policy rate to be held at 0.00%. Thursday, 24 September, is also the last trading day for October COMEX gold and silver options. Friday coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival, which may provide seasonal support to physical gold demand and investment sentiment.

The U.S. dollar strengthened overall last week, with the dollar index breaking above 100 and closing Friday at a one-and-a-half-month high of 100.56. Although softer oil prices and lower Treasury yields briefly pressured the dollar, the index managed to hold above 100 and finished the week at 100.22. Measuring the rebound from the August and September lows, initial resistance is seen at 100.70, followed by 101.34 and 101.99. Support lies at 99.93 and 99.49. The short-term bias remains constructive; near-term resistance is around 100.34, a break of which could extend upside momentum.

London gold softened first then recovered last week, bottoming at 4235.59 before rebounding on Thursday and Friday to a high of 4399.60 and closing at 4378.63. Price continues to trade within the 4239–4319 support zone and the 4407–4483 resistance band. This week, particular attention should remain on the 4407 level previously flagged as a key resistance divide. Next resistance stands at the 25-day moving average (4434) and the 250-day moving average (4451). After testing the 50-day average near 4288 last week and rebounding, that level can be viewed as support, with upside targets at 4399 and 4437. A sustained hold above 4437 would signal a clearer shift in tone, opening the way first toward 4487 and 4554, then 4627.

Measuring the correction from this month's twin highs, initial support is seen at $4334 and $4294. A break below $4324 would open the next leg lower toward $4261 and $4229.

With the Mid-Autumn Festival this week, the market may capture some of autumn's golden narrative. Expect an early soft-then-strong pattern, with a projected range of $4321–$4404. Support lies at $4294 and $4239; resistance at $4461 and $4511. Should the Xi-Trump meeting deliver conciliatory signals, risk appetite could weigh on gold; renewed friction over trade or rare earths would likely revive safe-haven demand.

London Gold Forecast Range, 21–25 September 
Resistance: 4404 – 4461 – 4487 – 4511 – 4594  
Support: 4348 – 4321 – 4297 – 4241 – 4184

London Gold, 21 September  
Early forecast range: 4373 – 4391  
Resistance: 4411 – 4438 – 4503  
Support: 4347 – 4308 – 4243

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings
8 Sep – 1,050.63 tonnes  
9 Sep – 1,050.63 tonnes  
10 Sep – 1,050.28 tonnes  
11 Sep – 1,047.43 tonnes  
14 Sep – 1,047.43 tonnes  
15 Sep – 1,050.28 tonnes  
16 Sep – 1,051.99 tonnes  
17 Sep – 1,052.85 tonnes  
18 Sep – 1,057.12 tonnes  

18 Sep Morning fix: $4387  
18 Sep Afternoon fix: $4348.15

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