Risk appetite improves and the dollar remains under pressure
The trend of the U.S. dollar against the yen. Since October last year, the exchange rate has encountered resistance at the 106 mark many times. After being restrained again last week, it has fallen back to this Tuesday before stabilizing slightly, driving the RSI and stochastic index to rebound again and the yen will stabilize. It is estimated that the support level will be at MA-100 of 104.35 and 103.30 levels, and the next level will be at the 102.50 level that remained stable for several days at the beginning of the year. As for the upper resistance, continue to pay attention to the 106 mark. In addition, based on the cumulative decline since last June, the rebound rate of 50% and 61.8% will be 106.20 and 107.10 levels. Larger resistance refers to the high of 108.16 last July.
The euro is trending against the yen. Recently, the exchange rate has stabilized above the MA-10 and has moved higher, driving the RSI and stochastic index to maintain upward. It is expected that the short-term euro against the yen will still tend to rise. First resistance at 129.40 to 130 mark. However, we should also pay attention to the current MA-10 at 127.75. If the market outlook falls below this area, it is expected to increase the pressure on the callback. Calculated based on the cumulative increase since last November, the 38.2% callback rate will be seen to 126.05, and the 50% and 61.8% rates will be seen to the 125.15 and 124.35 levels.
Highlights of the week:
Japan's fourth quarter quarter-on-year growth rate of 12.7%
Japan's real GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 3.0% from the previous quarter
Japan's real GDP in 2020 will fall by 4.8%, the first decline since 2009
Resistance 106.00** - 106.20 - 107.10
Support 104.30 - 103.30 - 102.50*
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