JPY – The Fed's hawkish stance boosted the dollar, while the yen remained weak

The Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance at its first policy meeting chaired by new Chairman Warsh, leading to higher US Treasury yields and putting pressure on non-US currencies. The surge in the dollar reflects Warsh's more hawkish stance and the expectation of at least one rate hike by the end of the year among the nine voting members.

The yen has been under continued pressure recently, trading within the 160 range. Market participants are wary of potential intervention risks, limiting the yen's decline. Technically, the moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the USD/JPY pair maintains an overall strong trend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought territory, indicating that upward momentum may be gradually slowing. Furthermore, the pair's stagnation within the 160 range for several days is increasing the risk of a correction. Support is seen at the 25-day moving average of 159.70, with the next level at 158, and further support at 157.30 and 156.40. As for the upside, watching 160.80. The next resistance level is expected at 16130, with stronger resistance estimated at 162 to 162.80, and the key level is 165.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 160.80 – 161.30 – 162.00 – 162.80 – 165.00
Support: 159.70 – 158.00 - 157.30 – 156.40 – 155.00

This Week's News Highlights:
15/6 Japan's April Tertiary Sector Activity Index (MoM) +1.3%
16/6 Bank of Japan Raises Policy Rate by 25 Basis Points to 1.00%, the Highest Level Since 1995

Focus:
Friday Japan's May CPI (07:30)

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