XAU – The September gold breakout point is $3,408

Just on Saturday, a US federal appeals court ruled that Trump's April announcement of reciprocal tariffs on several countries and regions, as well as his tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, were unlawful. However, the appeals court allowed the measures to remain in effect until October 14th, allowing the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court. Trump subsequently stated that he would appeal to the Supreme Court, adding that the United States would be devastated if the tariffs were repealed. Monday is Labor Day in the US, and while data will be released on the US August PMI, the most anticipated data will be the US August employment data, due on Friday, which may be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's near-term policy.

London gold fell to $3,350.8 at the opening bell last week, then rose to $3,453.7 on Friday, closing at $3,446.7 at the weekend. Data released on Friday showed that the US core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in July and 2.9% year-over-year, reaching a five-month high. The PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with expectations, and remained stable at 2.6% year-over-year. The inflation data reinforced expectations of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's September policy meeting from 85% before the data release to around 90%. The U.S. dollar subsequently remained under pressure, while gold surged higher.

Gold prices rose from $3,282 to $3,453 in August, finally breaking out of its sideways range. The four-month moving average is currently at $3,332, and the nine-month moving average is at $3,114. The weekly chart, after previously tangling with the moving averages in a bearish pattern, has now shown a clear upward trend. The four-week moving average is currently at $3,388, the nine-week moving average is at $3,365, and the 25-week moving average is at $3,283. The daily chart showed a significant rebound last week after touching the 100-day moving average the previous week, breaking out of a bearish pattern. Furthermore, the short-term and medium-term moving averages are aligning upward, with prices now holding steady above them and officially breaking through previous range resistance at $3,423 and $3,431 on Friday.

The September gold price breakout level is $3,408. If the price doesn't close below this level this month, gold prices are expected to continue their steady growth. It is expected to initially challenge the recent high of $3,500 reached on April 23rd; further resistance is expected at $3,532 and $3,579. If $3,408 is breached mid-month, a retest of $3,360 and $3,298 is possible. It's also worth noting that December gold futures have yet to break out of their range, so a breakout today would be necessary for gold to rally. Last week, December gold futures reached a high of $3,532 and closed at $3,530, with resistance at $3,550. This week's estimated range is $3424 to $3498. Resistance is expected to be $3525, with support at $3409 and $3395. The trend today is towards $3429 to $3472.

London Gold Forecast Range for September
Resistance: 3469 – 3501 – 3532/3555 – 3579/3665
Support: 3438 – 3408 – 3384 – 3361/3298

London Gold Forecast Range for September 1-5:
Resistance: 3461 – 3498 – 3512 – 3528/3578
Support: 3424 – 3409 – 3395 – 3358/3322

London Gold for September 1:
Early Forecast Range: 3438 – 3454
Resistance: 3462 – 3471 – 3479/3488
Support: 3429 – 3422 – 3405/3388

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
August 18 – 965.37 tons
August 19 – 962.21 tons
August 20 – 958.21 tons
August 21 – 956.77 tons
August 22 – 956.77 tons
August 25 – 958.49 tons
August 26 – 959.92 tons
August 27 – 967.94 tons
August 28 – 967.94 tons
August 29 – 977.68 tons

29/8 AM London Gold Fix: $3407.50 
29/8 PM London Gold Fix: $3429.15 

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