XAU  – Gold has been rising for days, and we need to start to be wary of the risk of a correction

The comprehensive tariff policy announced by US President Trump triggered a global stock market crash and bond market panic at the beginning of last week, with investors flocking to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold for safe havens; while US assets were sold off by investors, the stock market value evaporated trillions of dollars, and US Treasury yields soared. Analysts attributed the sell-off to a massive asset sell-off, with hedge funds and other asset managers dumping bonds due to margin calls and losses, and even speculated that foreign investors may have been selling U.S. Treasuries. Afterwards, Trump suddenly and dramatically announced a policy reversal last Wednesday, saying that tariffs would be suspended for 90 days on countries that did not take retaliatory actions to allow officials to consult with countries willing to negotiate. This reversal triggered a market reversal, and U.S. stocks soared for a time, but as the market digested it appropriately, U.S. stocks fell again, and the dollar's rebound also quickly subsided. The U.S. dollar index fell below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023, the U.S. dollar fell to a 10-year low against the Swiss franc, and the U.S. dollar fell to a six-month low against the yen. Separately, data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, but inflation risks were skewed to the upside after Trump raised tariffs on China. Traders are currently betting the Fed will resume cutting interest rates in June and see about 90 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025.

London gold broke through the $3,200 mark last Friday due to
Investors turned to gold as a safe haven as a weaker dollar and an escalating trade war between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession. Gold prices hit a record high of $3,245.28, and rose more than 6% for the week. In terms of technical trends, the cumulative increase from Wednesday to Friday morning has exceeded US$260, and the RSI and stochastic index on the chart have risen to the overbought area. We need to be careful about the risk of gold prices hitting a high and then falling back. Therefore, we need to set a stop loss when chasing the upward trend. The current upward resistance is expected to be $3,250, with greatest resistance at $3,275 and $3,300 levels, and the next level is expected to be $3,330. As for the nearest support, we will firstly refer to $3200 and $3185. The larger support is expected to be 3170 and 3150, and then attention will be paid to the 3100.

London gold forecast range from April 14 to 18:
Resistance 3274 – 3326 – 3380 – 3419 –3456 –3602
Support 3221 – 3168 – 3129 – 3091 –2985 –2879

London Gold April 14
Predicted early range: 3228 – 3246
Resistance 3259 – 3271 – 3283 –3295
Support 3222 – 3211 – 3200 – 3175 – 3151

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
March 31 – 933.38 tons
April 1 – 931.37 tons
April 2 – 931.94 tons
April 3 – 936.24 tons
April 4 – 932.8 tons
April 7 – 926.78 tons
April 8 – 925.92 tons
April 9 – 937.09 tons
April 10 – 949.71 tons
April 11 – 953.15 tons

14/4 AM London Gold Fix: $3213.75 
14/4 PM London Gold Fix: $3230.50

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