XAU  - Gold hits new highs, continuing to gain support from safe-haven flows

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. labor market remained mired in a sluggish state of "low hiring and low layoffs" throughout September, although the economy may be on a "slightly more solid track than expected." He noted that policymakers will take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to deciding whether to cut interest rates, seeking a balance between a weak job market and above-target inflation. Powell acknowledged the dilemma facing the U.S. economy, with Fed officials almost evenly divided on inflation and employment: some worry that inflation remains elevated or may even rise, while others worry that the labor market may be rapidly deteriorating. He noted that a new complication is that recent stronger-than-expected economic activity data has yet to translate into a rebound in hiring.

Gold prices in London hit another record high as expectations of a Fed rate cut this month and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions fueled investor risk aversion. Gold prices rose to a record high above $4,180 on Wednesday, having surged approximately 57% so far this year, breaking through $4,100 for the first time on Monday. Geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US interest rate cuts, strong buying from central banks, and inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are all driving gold prices higher. Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale currently expect gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026.

For gold prices, last week's correction narrowly held above the rising trend line and the 9-day moving average. Furthermore, the RSI and Stochastics oscillator have also risen again as gold prices rebounded, suggesting continued momentum for higher prices. Nearest support is expected at $4150 and $4138, with higher support at $4118 and $4098, followed by $4072. Upward resistance is expected at $4185 and $4205, with next levels at $4225, $4272, and even $4315.

London Gold October 15th
Early Trading Range: 4150 – 4185
Resistance: 4205 – 4225 – 4272 – 4315
Support: 4138 – 4118 – 4098 – 4072

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
October 6 – 1,013.17 tons
October 7 – 1,013.15 tons
October 8 – 1,014.58 tons
October 9 – 1,013.44 tons
October 10 – 1,017.16 tons
October 13 – 1,018.88 tons
October 14 – 1,021.45 tons

14/10 AM London Gold Fix: $4143.8
14/10 PM London Gold Fix: $4126.3

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