NZD – Central Bank Hints at End of Easing Cycle, New Zealand Dollar Rebounds

The New Zealand dollar rose to a three-week high against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates on Wednesday, but stated that holding rates steady was discussed during the meeting and that the easing cycle is likely over. Driven by strong economic data on Thursday, the market expects interest rates to rise further and has priced in a rate hike in December 2026. This contrasts sharply with market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 90 basis points between now and the end of 2026. Data showed that New Zealand retail sales rose in the third quarter, and business confidence jumped to its highest point in a year.

As seen on the technical charts, the NZD/USD pair retested the November 14 high of 0.5691 after a period of pullback. If the price can break through this level further, it is expected to stabilize again, with short-term targets at 0.5750 and 0.58. The key level to watch after that is the 200-day moving average at 0.5855, with the next key level at 0.60. Support is estimated at 0.5610, with the next key levels at 0.55 and 0.5460.

Forecasted range:
Resistance 0.5750 - 0.5800* - 0.5855 - 0.6000*
Support 0.5610 - 0.5500* - 0.5460 – 0.5400*

This Week's News Highlights:

21/11 New Zealand's October exports reached NZ$6.5 billion
New Zealand's October imports reached NZ$8.04 billion
New Zealand's annual trade balance to October was -NZ$2.28 billion
New Zealand's October trade balance was -NZ$1.542 billion

26/11 Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%

27/11 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkesby: We have already cut rates significantly, and the recovery may be faster and stronger.

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