CL New York Crude Oil – Oil Prices Continue to Decline, Constrained by Optimistic Prospects in US-Iran Talks

New York crude oil prices continued to decline as concerns about supply shortages eased significantly with the resumption of high-frequency shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a rapid recovery in regional crude oil exports, and easing geopolitical tensions. New York crude oil fell 2.77% to $68.09, hitting a four-month low. US President Trump stated that US-Iran talks were progressing well, relations between the two countries were "very good," and that technical talks held in Doha sought to reach an agreement on shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a lasting ceasefire, alleviating market concerns about supply disruptions.

Global oil sentiment has shifted from being driven by risk premiums to expectations of a temporary supply glut, with investors reassessing the medium-term supply and demand balance. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has rapidly recovered to over 10 million barrels per day, and this key artery of global energy transportation has essentially reopened. With the combined effect of US military escort and regional coordination mechanisms, the safety of commercial oil tanker transportation has improved, and market concerns about supply disruptions have significantly decreased, driving a continued retracement of the crude oil risk premium. Meanwhile, rapid adjustments on the supply side in major oil-producing regions have further strengthened expectations of ample supply. The UAE, through alternative transportation and operational optimization, has essentially recovered to pre-conflict export levels; while Iran has seen a significant jump in short-term shipments after the easing of related restrictions. In addition, Russian seaborne exports remain high, and the superposition of multiple supply factors has led to a significant increase in global floating inventories, further suppressing oil prices.

New York crude oil futures continue to be in a pullback channel, with near-month contracts breaking below short- and medium-term moving average support. The overall moving average system shows a bearish alignment, indicating a continued weak short-term trend. Prices broke below the 250-day moving average support last week and are currently at $72.15. Support levels are estimated at $67.50 and $66.60, with stronger support expected at $65 and $63.60. Resistance levels are seen at 68.50 and 70, followed by the 250-day moving average at 72.15 to 73.20 USD.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 68.50 – 70.00 – 72.15 – 73.20
Support: 67.50 – 66.60 – 65.00 – 63.60

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