CL New York Crude Oil – Easing Middle East Tensions Cause Oil Prices to Fall

New York crude oil futures fell for the fifth consecutive day. The signing of a framework memorandum for a peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is expected to close the Strait of Hormuz soon, further eased market concerns about oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a potential rate hike, coupled with the International Energy Agency's forecast that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years, putting pressure on the medium- to long-term outlook for the oil market. In the short term, oil prices may remain volatile.

From a high of $93.64 last Thursday to a low of $74.09 this Wednesday, New York crude oil futures have recorded a drop of $19.55 in five trading days; this has caused the RSI to fall into oversold territory, and the price is approaching the 250-day moving average currently at $72. Therefore, it is necessary to be wary of some support near this area. The stronger support levels are the 70 mark and 69.20. The immediate support level is estimated at $74. The resistance levels are seen at $75.80 and the 50-month moving average at 77.10, followed by $78 and $79.20.

Forecast range:
Resistance 75.80 – 77.10 – 78.00 – 79.20
Support 74.00 – 72.00 – 70.00 – 69.20

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