CL New York Crude Oil – Oil Prices Fall as Iraq Resumes Production and Ukraine Talks Continue

Oil prices declined on Monday after Iraq resumed production at an oil field that accounts for 0.5% of the world's oil supply, while investors considered ongoing negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. U.S. crude was at $58.88, down $1.20, or 2%. Two Iraqi energy officials told Reuters on Monday that Iraq had resumed production at Lukoil's West Qurna 2 oil field, one of the world's largest, after a leak in an export pipeline caused a production reduction. Sources told Reuters that Iraq had shut down the field, which produces approximately 460,000 barrels per day, and prices slightly pared their losses afterward.

New York crude oil futures have maintained a narrow downward trend in recent months, repeatedly constrained by the 50-day moving average. With the recent price rebound, there is a chance to test this technical resistance. A break above this level could reverse the recent downward trend. Short-term support levels will be around $58.20 and $57.10, with the next levels expected at the October low of $56.35 and the May 5th low of $55.30. Resistance is seen at the 50-day moving average currently around $59.80; stronger resistance is estimated at $62.60 and the 250-day moving average at $65.50.

Forecast range:
Resistance: $59.80* – $62.60 – $65.50
Support: $58.20 - $57.10 – $56.35 - $55.00/30

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