CL New York Crude Oil – Oil Prices Retreat from Triangle Top

Iran announced the resumption of negotiations with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, sparking market hopes for a possible reopening of the strait and causing oil prices to fall. Iran and Oman stated on Tuesday that they had discussed a“joint temporary shipping lane” through the strait and agreed to clear mines from the strait. Meanwhile, two sources familiar with the matter revealed that the US is beginning to send personnel back to some Middle Eastern diplomatic missions that had previously withdrawn or reduced their staff due to tensions with Iran, indicating that Washington believes the risk of further escalation of the recent conflict has decreased. The US announced on Monday an expansion of sanctions against Iran but stated that it would not immediately impose penalties.

Technically, New York crude oil futures have been testing the top of a triangle pattern recently, but after failing to break through last Friday, profit-taking occurred, and oil prices have fallen all the way to near the $80 mark this week. Currently, the triangle top is at $86.75. A clear breakout in the next phase could lead to another round of upward movement in oil prices, with key targets at the $90 mark and then the previous month's high of $93.50, followed by $95. The immediate resistance levels are expected to be $81.30 and the 25-day moving average at $82.80. Initial support is anticipated at the $80 level and the 50-day moving average at $78.70, followed by $77.70 and $76.50. The next level to watch is the 250-day moving average at $74.65 and potentially $74.

Forecasted range:
Resistance: $81.30 – $82.80 - $86.75* – $90.00 – $93.50 – $95.00
Support: $80.00* – $77.70 – $76.50 – $74.65 – $74.00

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